1/3
2/3
Media Release
2/3
Media Release
Colombo/Brussels | 9 Dec 2014
Sri Lanka’s upcoming presidential election
promises more competition than was initially anticipated. But with that
comes a great risk of violence. Long-term stability and post-war
reconciliation can only be achieved through a peaceful election
resulting in a government committed to serving the interests of all Sri
Lankans.
“The
opposition’s attempt to reopen democratic space also brings with it
risks of violence and instability ... The tighter the race, the more
violent it threatens to be”.
Alan Keenan, Crisis Group’s Sri Lanka Senior Analyst
|
Surprising many observers, Sri Lanka’s 8 January presidential
election between incumbent Mahinda Rajapaksa and his former ally
Maithripala Sirisena looks set to be a close contest. Promising to
abolish the executive presidency and revive parliamentary democracy, the
opposition offers a different vision from that of the government, which
is increasingly entrenched in power. In its latest briefing, Sri Lanka’s Presidential Election: Risks and Opportunities,
the International Crisis Group examines the challenges facing Rajapaksa
and the opposition, and how domestic and international actors can
mitigate the risk of political instability.
The briefing’s major findings and recommendations are:
- The sudden emergence of a viable joint opposition is welcome, but the heightened competition raises the likelihood of election-related violence and fraud in an increasingly authoritarian political context, where all state institutions are under the tight control of the executive. Sri Lanka’s international partners should support a significant election-monitoring presence – from the Commonwealth and the EU – as early as possible, insist it have full freedom of movement and provide funding to local election monitoring groups. They should deliver pre-election warnings to all political leaders to avoid serious fraud and election-related violence.
- Particular concerns will focus on whether the extremist Bodu Bala Sena (Buddhist Power Force) movement will be marshalled to solidify the government’s Sinhalese base, or intimidate or provoke the Muslim electorate. Likewise, Tamil-majority areas in the north and east remain under tight control; as with the 2013 provincial elections, there are fears that campaigning will be heavily controlled there and the authorities could resort to intimidation or worse.
- Should Sirisena gain power, his plan for constitutional change will face significant obstacles. His coalition will be divided on a series of crucial issues put on hold by Rajapaksa: devolving power to Tamil-majority areas, protecting the rights of religious and ethnic minorities, addressing the legacy of wartime human rights violations – still, rightly, a focus of the UN human rights system – and reducing the military’s size and role in civilian affairs.
“The opposition’s attempt to reopen democratic space also brings with
it risks of violence and instability” says Alan Keenan, Sri Lanka
Senior Analyst. “The tighter the race, the more violent it threatens to
be”.
“Whoever wins in January, issues of devolution of power,
accountability and reconciliation, and of the equal status of Tamils and
Muslims in a Sinhala majority state, will remain contentious”, says
says Jonathan Prentice, Chief Policy Officer and Acting Asia Program
Director. “Navigating this terrain will require political skills and
statesmanship by all parties, with the cooperation of Sri Lanka’s
international partners”. (ICG)
3/3
OVERVIEW
Sri Lanka’s presidential election,
scheduled for 8 January 2015, looks set to defy the predictions of many
and be a true competition. As such, the polls threaten risks and promise
opportunities for long-term stability and post-war reconciliation. The
sudden emergence of a strong opposition candidate caught many, including
President Mahinda Rajapaksa, by surprise. Running on a platform of
constitutional reforms to limit executive power and restore independent
oversight bodies, the opposition coalition led by former Rajapaksa
colleague Maithripala Sirisena seems set to pose the first strong
challenge to Rajapaksa in nearly a decade. Amid a restrictive climate
for civil society, for Tamils and for religious minorities, the risk of
serious election-related violence merits close international attention
and active efforts to prevent political instability, including the
possibility of extra-constitutional means by Rajapaksa to retain power.
Reacting to disappointing results for his
coalition in a series of recent provincial polls, Rajapaksa’s 20
November announcement of an early election for a third term was designed
in part to strike while the opposition was still divided. To the
surprise of many, a coalition of opposition parties announced that its
common candidate would be Maithripala Sirisena, the general secretary of
Rajapaksa’s own Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP). A number of key SLFP
members joined Sirisena and more defections have followed, dealing a
major blow to the president. While he is still the frontrunner, for the
first time since the end of the war in 2009 it can no longer be taken
for granted that Rajapaksa – and with him his powerful brothers and
other family members – will remain in power indefinitely. Should
additional senior members of the SLFP or other constituents of the
ruling coalition abandon the government, the pressure will mount. For
the first time in years, the opposition, together with critical voices
among Sri Lanka’s beleaguered civil society, are sensing that political
change is a real possibility.
At the same time, the sudden emergence of a
viable joint opposition increases the chances of severe
election-related violence and other malpractices. The Rajapaksas are
almost certain to deploy the full resources of the state – money,
vehicles, state-owned radio, TV and newspapers, civil servants and the
police – in support of Mahinda’s re-election, and are widely expected to
do whatever is needed to try to maintain their power. The tighter the
race, the more violent it will be.
Many fear that the radical Buddhist group
Bodu Bala Sena (Buddhist Power Force, or BBS) may be used to produce a
violent incident designed to distract from other malpractices, or to
lower Muslim turnout, or to provoke a Muslim backlash that the
government would use to solidify its Sinhala base. Some suspect BBS
could also be used to destabilise a new government should Sirisena win.
With the northern and eastern provinces
still under tight military control, security forces could, as in last
year’s provincial election, be used to restrict campaigning by
opposition parties and intimidate Tamil and Muslim voters to reduce
turnout. Restrictions on travel by foreigners to the northern province,
re-imposed in September 2014, will make it harder for media, diplomats
and international organisations or aid workers to monitor and report on
any violations.
Should Sirisena win the vote, the president
and his brothers could find other means to retain power, including
resorting to the politically compliant Supreme Court to invalidate the
result, or using the military as a last resort. In this volatile
pre-election context, foreign governments and international institutions
concerned with Sri Lanka’s long-term stability – among them, China,
India, Japan, U.S., the UN, European Union (EU), World Bank and Asian
Development Bank (ADB) – should seek to limit the risks of serious
political violence, before, during and after the election; and help
create as level an electoral playing field as possible, to increase the
chances for real debate and fair competition. To these ends, they
should:
-
support a significant election-monitoring presence – from the Commonwealth and the EU – as early as possible, insist it have full freedom of movement and provide funding to local election monitoring groups;
-
deliver pre-election warnings to all political leaders to avoid serious fraud and election-related violence, including support for militant Buddhist attacks on Muslims and Christians.
Amid Sri Lanka’s authoritarian drift and
institutionalised impunity, that a real political competition is in the
offing provides unexpected hope for the future. Within the current
opening, however, lies potential for serious conflict given how much is
at stake for all involved. The opportunity should be seized to make sure
that the next government has the broad national credibility,
internationally endorsed, to begin the process of knitting together the
Sri Lankan society battered by its recent traumatic history. Whoever
wins in January, core questions around national identity – issues of
devolution of power, of accountability and reconciliation, and of the
equal status of Tamils and Muslims in a Sinhala majority state – will
remain contentious. They will require deft handling if greater
instability is not to result. (ICG)
Colombo/Brussels, 9 December 2014
Read Full pdf Report from here>>>
Home / Sri Lanka Think Tank-UK (Main Link) /
Empowered by; FB Page (Like us) /
FB Group (Request) / FB Wall (Add) /